Harvesting Drought Resilience in Belize

While export-oriented crops such as sugarcane, banana, and citrus contribute substantially to the economy and livelihoods, Belize has also faced an increased number of droughts in the last decade. Changing weather patterns have already affected the North of the country where abundant sugarcane fields have experienced year-after-year reductions in productivity, building pressure on farmers. As a response, the Government of Belize launched the Climate Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture Project (CRESAP), with a focus on better data, stronger resilience, and more targeted agricultural planning.

It is within this context that VITO, as part of ESA's Global Development Assistance (GDA) Agriculture consortium, developed crop type maps and connected to drought-related indicators, integrating resulting products into the Belize Information Management System (BAIMS) to support more informed agricultural decision-making. The work focused especially on the main producing regions for sugarcane, citrus, and banana, and on practical questions such as where climate stress is most acute, and where irrigation infrastructure is not adapted to a changing climate.

The case demonstrates how satellite data can move beyond technical mapping to support adaptation and resilience in both a policy and investment setting, particularly when used jointly with existing and data-rich institutional systems. EO-based analytics revealed where major perennial crops are concentrated, showed persistent drought stress in the North, and identified mismatches between irrigation infrastructure and climate risk. All EO layers were prepared for operational use through web map services (WMS) for BAIMS, creating a pathway toward institutional uptake by Belize's Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Enterprise (MAFSE) and other stakeholders.

Belize faces a dual challenge: agriculture remains central to livelihoods and the national economy, while climate variability has an impact on production and uncertainties related to production. In the last decade, droughts have already affected productivity in the Orange Walk district, an important production area for sugarcane. At the same time, uneven irrigation coverage complicates the matter. While southern regions have a more elaborate irrigation infrastructure than the north, they were less affected by drought events in the past decade - also leading to a lower impact on vegetation conditions.

CRESAP articulated a clear need for better geospatial intelligence. Decision-makers needed to know where key crops are located, where water stress is most severe, and how these patterns intersect with existing infrastructure, agricultural support systems, and future exposure to climate-related risks such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes. BAIMS was identified as the central platform for bringing these data together, but it required new EO-enabled layers and stronger GIS functionality to support more advanced analyses.

The case therefore sits at the intersection of agricultural management, climate adaptation, and development financing. It was not only about producing maps, but about supporting Belizean institutions and their partners in making more informed choices on water management, resilience planning, and agricultural investment. The collaboration involved VITO, the World Bank and local experts from MAFSE, farmer cooperations, and Belizean financing institutes.

VITO produced crop type classification maps for sugarcane, banana, and citrus across the main production districts of Stann Creek, Cayo, Orange Walk, and Toledo. These maps were generated at 10 m resolution using multiannual Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery. Through adapting the WorldCereal system to account for multiannual composites and fine tuning it to available farm-level data from BAIMS, it was able to distinguish perennial crop systems in the Belizean context. The resulting spatial patterns matched national statistics and validation showed high classification accuracy.

The VITO-led use case also analysed climate variability and drought conditions affecting agricultural performance. Meteorological indicators showed persistent precipitation deficits in northern Belize and revealed strong associations between drought-prone, rainfed sugarcane areas and reduced vegetation conditions. Looking in more detail at the 2022-2023 sugarcane growing season in Orange Walk, the vegetation health index (VHI) indicator from FAO's Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) further highlighted local hotspots requiring attention. When these layers are compared with irrigation information already held in BAIMS, they expose a mismatch between where droughts have become more prevalent and where irrigation infrastructure is present.

Together, these products transformed EO data into decision-ready information. Rather than providing a single map or indicator, they created an evidence base for targeting adaptation interventions, improving water management, and building a stronger analytical foundation inside BAIMS, while also opening the way for EO integration into the World Bank’s CRESAP project.

The core EO inputs were Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 optical imagery, used in combination with AgERA5 meteorological information and Copernicus DEM to map the location and extent of Belize's major (perennial) crops. An adaptation of the ESA WorldCereal system to deal with multiannual imagery helped distinguish perennial crops and a fine tuning to the local context with available farm-level data in BAIMS allowed for a more reliable capture of the spectral characteristics of Belize's major perennials over time.

Additional datasets were used for drought and climate stress analysis: indicators from ASIS, including vegetation condition measures such as VHI were analysed in conjunction with village-level information on water management existing in BAIMS.

The most immediate contribution of the use case is that Belize now has a much clearer and more complete spatial picture of where key crops are grown, where drought stress is most acute, and where existing irrigation infrastructure does not match climate risk. These EO-based products and analysis can form the basis for targeting interventions and help shift adaptation planning from general concern to specific locations, crops and infrastructure gaps. The same would apply to other climate stresses such as flooding and hurricanes.

Institutionally, the case has created a pathway toward operational EO uptake inside BAIMS. The layers are accessible via WMS, and BAIMS expansion is underway as MAFSE has been strengthening its GIS capacities with the aid of project partners. Also at an institutional level, the project has been a pathway for EO integration into the World Bank's CRESAP project and workflows.

The beneficiaries include policymakers, technical staff, agricultural planners, and ultimately, farmers whose decisions and support systems depend on better information. National and regional financing institutions have also expressed interest in using the data and upgrading their GIS and EO capabilities, which suggests value beyond technical ministries and into investment and risk-assessment workflows. The case shows that EO can help governments and partners move from reactive responses to more anticipatory, resilience-oriented planning for agriculture under climate stress.