Disasters

Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS)

Region Americas


Summary

GVEWERS is a permanent and sustainable effort intended to support volcano hazards assessment and risk mitigation globally. The initiative builds on previous CEOS activities that started with a Pilot (2014-2017) and continued with a Demonstrator (2019-2023), which showcased how open, low-latency satellite data can aid responses to volcanic eruptions and related hazards. Community-endorsed remote sensing goals for volcano monitoring include:

  • Daily satellite observations of erupting volcanoes.
  • Weekly observations of volcanoes showing signs of unrest.
  • Baseline, less frequent observations of quiescent volcanoes.

Daily monitoring of volcanic gas and thermal emissions from space is already feasible thanks to the growing constellation of Earth-observing satellites, particularly those designed for meteorological applications and high-temporal, but low-spatial, resolutions. Moderate-resolution thermal, visible, and SAR sensors also enable weekly views of most volcanoes worldwide. Lagging behind, however, are high-spatial-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets that are essential for detecting subtle, localized, and rapidly evolving ground deformation and surface changes. Even though high-resolution data could be acquired frequently enough to meet volcano monitoring needs, data collection is often irregular, and imagery is usually not openly available to volcanologists — especially at the low latencies needed for volcano monitoring. Exploitation of high-resolution SAR and optical datasets is therefore a central priority within CEOS volcano remote sensing efforts and the main focus of the GVEWERS initiative.

Figure 1: 2015 eruption of the Calbuco Stratovolcano behind the town of Puerto Montt (Attribution: Carolina Barría Kemp, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Value Chain Diagram

  1. Decide

    • Identify volcanoes showing signs of unrest
    • Forecast the potential for hazardous eruptions and their impacts
    • Aid emergency managers with risk mitigation measures
  2. Apply

    • Detect eruption precursors or identify hazardous changes during ongoing eruptions
    • Aid volcano observatories in setting or updating alert levels
    • Assist with decision making related to protective actions, including evacuations
    Service Evolution
  3. Data production

    • Maps of ground deformation, topography, and other surface changes
    • Measurements of thermal anomalies and gas emissions
    • Detection and characterization of ash plumes
    • Probabilistic forecasts of future volcanic activity based in part on satellite datasets
    Ground Segment Evolution
  4. Sense

    • Moderate- and high-spatial-resolution SAR systems with varying revisit intervals
    • High-spatial-resolution optical sensors
    • Moderate-spatial-resolution visible and thermal sensors
    • Low-spatial-resolution, high-temporal-resolution meteorological sensors
    Space Segment Evolution

Decision-Making Context and Needs

Over one billion people live within 100 km of a volcano that has erupted at least once in the past ~12,000 years, and about 500 volcanoes worldwide have a historical record of eruptions. Yet only about 35% of those historically active volcanoes are monitored by ground-based instrument networks, even though a key component to forecasting eruptions involves collection and modelling of monitoring data. Fortunately, a comprehensive and global volcano-monitoring system already exists — the constellation of Earth-observing satellites originally designed to track weather conditions, landscape evolution, and environmental changes. Since the 1960s and 1970s, when Earth-observing satellite data began to be available, satellite-based remote sensing has detected unrest or eruptions at over 400 volcanoes worldwide. Today’s satellite platforms offer a wide range of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, facilitating a deeper understanding of the volcanic processes that pose hazards to people and infrastructure. It also provides nearly comprehensive views of every stage of the eruption cycle. With this data, scientists can characterise ground deformation, changes in topography and surface conditions, gas emissions, thermal anomalies, and ash plumes.

Over 100 volcano observatories and institutions worldwide are tasked with producing data and interpretations in support of volcanic hazards assessment and risk mitigation. Low-latency access to high-resolution SAR and optical satellite data provides essential support when these agencies must respond to episodes of volcanic unrest and eruption, particularly with respect to communicating potential public safety implications through alert-level changes that can motivate protective actions, including evacuations.

Earth Observation Data Products and Information

Because data from many meteorological sensors and moderate-spatial-resolution thermal, visible, and SAR sensors are already freely available, GVEWERS focuses on data and derived products from high-resolution SAR and optical imagery. Critical products include:

  • Interferograms created from two SAR acquisitions to measure ground deformation that occurred between the image dates.
  • Surface change maps that detect the emplacement of volcanic deposits.
  • Visible imagery with sufficient resolution to identify changes in snow and ice cover or vegetation that may be related to volcanic activity.
  • High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from both SAR and optical data that can be used as a basis for hazard modelling, such as mudflow inundation forecasts, and to detect topographic variations over time.

While some of these datasets can be collected using ground-based and aerial platforms, data collection can be hazardous and hampered by weather conditions. Satellite remote sensing, in contrast, can provide more comprehensive and consistent coverage. SAR data in particular can penetrate cloud cover, which is often ubiquitous in volcanic areas. Used in combination, satellite, aerial, and ground-based observations provide critical datasets upon which volcano observatories can base alert-level determinations and communications to the public and emergency managers.

Figure 2: Various volcanological EO products of the Calbuco stratovolcano (data from OMI, ASTER, MODIS, Sentinel 1-A). (Attribution: NASA and ESA data)

Underlying Observations and Data Sources

GVEWERS makes use of a wide range of satellite systems. In addition to meteorological sensors, such as Himawari-9, and Earth and climate monitoring instruments like MODIS, the project relies upon SAR datasets with varying spatial resolutions, moderate-resolution thermal and visible sensors, and high-resolution optical imagery, including:

  • Sentinel-1 SAR backscatter and phase (moderate spatial resolution, co- and dual-polarization, near-global coverage of volcano targets).
  • TerraSAR-X SAR backscatter and phase (high spatial resolution, co-polarization, tasked acquisitions for specific volcanoes).
  • COSMO-SkyMed SAR backscatter and phase (high spatial resolution, co- and dual-polarization, tasked acquisitions for specific volcanoes, excellent temporal resolution).
  • Landsat 8 and 9 visible and thermal imagery (moderate spatial resolution, near-global coverage of volcano targets).
  • ASTER thermal imagery (moderate spatial resolution, near-global coverage of volcano targets).
  • Pleiades stereo-optical imagery for topographic reconstruction (high spatial resolution, tasked for specific volcanoes).

Impacts and Benefits

One of the clearest examples of the importance of satellite data for volcano surveillance is the 2010 eruption of Merapi in Indonesia. During that crisis, local volcanologists and their international collaborators used near-real-time interpretations of high-resolution SAR data in combination with ground-based monitoring to issue warnings of an impending explosive event. The resulting evacuations probably saved thousands of lives.

Figure 3: TerraSAR-X ground deformation map of Merapi prior to its 2010 eruption. (Attribution: DLR)

GVEWERS aims to build on the global need for comprehensive volcano monitoring from space by making available otherwise restricted datasets, as well as providing technical expertise in processing and interpreting those data. Capacity-building efforts also help countries lacking the necessary infrastructure and training in the use of remote sensing data for volcano surveillance. Key benefits of CEOS support for volcano monitoring include:

  • Improved situational awareness for volcano observatories (satellite monitoring can reveal changes that would otherwise go unnoticed).
  • Support for establishing and updating volcano alert levels (emergency management agencies rely on alert levels set by volcano monitoring agencies to guide courses of action).
  • Enhanced capacity for operational use of satellite data (several developing nations have incorporated diverse satellite data streams into their operational monitoring activities).
  • Critical inputs to forecasts of volcanic hazards (probabilistic assessments of future volcano activity rely on both knowledge of volcanic unrest and eruptive activity, as well as models of potential eruptive impacts).
  • Evaluation of ground-based monitoring (terrestrial sensors can malfunction, and satellite data provide an independent check on information gathered using other methods).
  • Research into how volcanoes work (large satellite data archives can be exploited by scientific investigations that seek to improve future monitoring and forecasting efforts).
Figure 4: Volcanic response capacity building exercise in Rwanda. (Attribution: Edward Ntim Gasu, ICTP-EAIFR)