EO4ER – Using Earth observation and climate projections for local solar energy production and distribution

Adapting solar and power systems to climate change is necessary to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. But the reverse is also true. As photovoltaic (PV) installations grow rapidly in homes, municipalities and companies, the local distribution of electricity faces increasingly changing conditions such as bidirectional power flows, congestion risks, voltage deviations, and exposure to extreme weather events.

The EO4ER (Earth Observation for Energy Risks) project addresses these challenges by developing a climate service to enhance the resilience of local electricity grids and their stakeholders. The service combines Earth Observation (EO) data, weather forecasts, climate projections, and real-time grid modelling into a unified digital twin. After deployment in a European village (Hittistetten, Germany), these data sources can be jointly leveraged to enable short-term forecasting, and long-term scenario analyses for solar systems and low-voltage grids.

Hence, EO4ER demonstrates how EO can empower co-benefits of climate action: not only can EO-informed climate adaptation ensure a sustainable and efficient reduction of GHGs, but it can trigger clear social benefits at local level as well.

Although the objective of the Paris Agreement for 2050 will likely not be achieved according to Copernicus reports, scientists emphasise that each degree is crucial to fight the climate emergency. To this end, EO4ER makes a strong case for how EO can simultaneously address the two pillars of efficient climate action: mitigation and adaptation. EO thus becomes an enabler of co-benefit and no-regret measures for the climate.

On one hand, reducing GHG emissions requires an energy transition which relies on the deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Achieving a carbon-free energy system is more important than ever, as future transport and heating sectors will increasingly use electricity. In Germany, the majority of PV systems are installed at the low-voltage (LV) grid level, predominantly on rooftops, and PV installation rates continue to grow. The conventional “install-and-forget” approach, which relies on over-dimensioned grid components, will no longer be sufficient, as LV grids were originally designed for unidirectional, radial power flows from transformers to households. With the increasing penetration of PV, grid operation must shift from passive to active management.

On the other hand, decreasing emissions thanks to renewable energy is wasteful if the infrastructure is not adapted to climate risks. Most DSOs (distribution system operators) are in charge of securing, strengthening and modernising the power network, notably against climate extremes. As electricity becomes increasingly critical, they must adapt the grid to more decentralised solar power generation, implement a smart grid with flexibility services like dynamic energy management, allowing more electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and heat pumps on the grid, or preparing for hydrogen. Their role in climate adaptation is then obvious, and so is the relevance to EO data to their activities.

Despite European DSOs covering different geographical areas (local, regional and sometimes national), there are approximately 3.2 million independently operated LV grids in Europe. Thus, the municipal level is instrumental for managing grids, and local stakeholders must enact Sustainable Energy and Climate Plans (SECAPs) to do so. This is the case of the Energy Use Plan (Energienutzungsplan) adopted by the city of Senden in 2023, which is the main local energy policy applicable to Hittistetten. As the local DSO, SWU Netze’s role is to implement parts of the plan, especially with its technical expertise on data, current and future grid capacities, connection options, and renewable energy projects.

EO4ER delivers a digital twin emphasising the usability of the tool for the end-user, in this case a local grid operator. The successful co-design process extensively relied on local knowledge and in-situ data with a need assessment then translated into technical and functional requirements.

Three challenges were identified by the DSO and addressed by EO4ER. First, the effects of climate change on the DSO’s assets, especially as their lifetime spans over 40-60 years. EO can assess physical risks which not only contributes to increasing the security of the assets, but to the energy security of the population as well. Second, an increasing number of fluctuating systems with high power, e.g. PV and EV chargers, are being connected to the grids. This increases the risk of power overproduction and grid congestion, leading to outages. EO helps to forecast solar energy generation so that DSOs can regulate the energy supply. Third, the constraints of limited resources (time, money, people) which are inherent to all organisations.

These challenges were translated into two main functional aspects: 1) prevention of grid congestion events based on the next hour solar generation; 2) PV and grid infrastructure planning under various climate scenarios.

From these functional requirements, the project responds to the DSO’s data needs: solar irradiance; PV power feed-in to compute grid load; extreme weather events; potential analysis for PV. For this, historical and real-time datasets were collected, nowcasting was provided at around 2-hour-ahead, forecasts were sent at two different time horizons (day- ahead to 18-month-ahead), and climate projections from different models were compared for 2050.

The use of satellite-based Earth observation (EO), or satellite remote sensing, is instrumental in this climate service. Indeed, EO4ER integrates a heterogeneous set of raw EO datasets as well as EO-derived weather forecasts and climate projections. Non-EO data include in-situ data from local stakeholders.

First, in a direct manner, two Meteosat missions are leveraged: Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) provides infrared images via the SEVIRI radiometer, while Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) collects spectral images from the FCI imager. Derived from the raw data of these two missions, snow mask products are compiled from EUMETSAT’s NWC SAF service.

Other raw EO data originates from the MODIS instrument, and from the Sentinel-3 satellite of the Copernicus programme. This European Union (EU) programme also processes EO products which blend satellite- and ground-based data, for example for aerosol from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).

EO4ER also uses EO in an indirect manner by using weather forecasts and climate projections made accessible by the EU’s Destination Earth programme, notably the Climate Change and Adaptation Digital Twin for temperature and wind speed. Here, the fundamental role of EO must be recalled in the training and validation of weather and climate models.

EO4ER has successfully demonstrated a grid-state nowcasting system in Hittistetten, a low-voltage grid with three independently operated LV/MV transformers. The project supported SWU Netze, a local DSO which is responsible for planning, construction, operation and maintenance of a 3,000-km-long power grid for 55,400 houses.

At the level of the end user, EO4ER helped to optimise the DSO’s resources to conduct its activities. The optimisation of the grid maintenance and renovation are cost-effective measures if the DSO knows which assets are the most exposed to extreme temperature or wind, and how the last two occurring hazards affect power supply. EO4ER can also help DSO teams to save time, money and energy consumption when conducting both planning tasks (risk assessments, grid design) and operational actions (scheduling, balancing, maintenance) as it provides real-time data and analytics in a user-friendly platform.

From a social perspective, ensuring the resilience of local renewable energy production implies numerous benefits as it can sustain high-quality jobs at local level (within and outside the DSO), maintain stable energy prices independent from geopolitical shocks and, hence, reduce energy poverty. Sharing solar energy can also boost a sense of pride and belonging to the village, whilst reducing eco-anxiety. Similarly, locally-produced solar power facilitates electric mobility which, in turn, can benefit the citizens’ health and quality of life, notably in terms of air pollution, noise and active mobility (e.g., electric bikes).

Lastly, EO4ER supported the capacity of SWU Netze in providing data and technical expertise in Senden’s ongoing work to design its Integrated Climate Protection Strategy. This policy will prioritise a set of climate action measures on climate adaptation, but also on climate mitigation with a focus on affordable energy supply, street lighting, e-mobility, district and municipal heating planning.

Given its direct alignment with the EU Green Deal and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and clean energy), 9 (Industry, innovation and infrastructure), 11 (Sustainable cities and communities), 13 (Climate action), EO4ER concluded on the high scalability and replicability potential of this service, especially in developing countries where renewable installations and local energy grids are common in addition to being a key pillar of economic security.