Future Challenges

The current ambitions for greatly enhanced understanding, monitoring, management and mitigation of key Earth system processes will be possible only with the measurement capabilities offered by the Earth observation satellites programmes being planned by the world’s space agencies. Many of the sophisticated computational models on which these studies depend will otherwise simply not have sufficient information to provide the necessary insights. Measurements of in-situ stations, buoys radiosondes, aircraft and ship based instruments cannot provide the synoptic global picture required to understand the Earth system.

The full significance of the satellite observations being gathered, and of those planned for the coming years is probably still to be fully appreciated or exploited. Information on climatic and environmental trends is increasingly valuable - in line with the expected increase in the impacts of man-made climate change, accelerated in the 21st century by population growth and increasing development.

Around 150 Earth observation satellite missions (with over 300 instruments onboard) are planned for operation over the coming 15 years in response to the main Earth system challenges defined by the international, science, policy and operational monitoring communities. These missions also respond to more immediate needs for information in the social, economic, and environmental domains, including: meteorological services, mapping, urban planning, disaster mitigation, agriculture and fisheries management, resource exploration, pollution monitoring, ship routing and safety, and others.

Careful planning and coordination of these programmes is essential if we are to ensure supply of the information required by current and future generations. For Earth observation satellite missions funded by governments, this coordination is already being provided by CEOS – recognised internationally as having this responsibility. This coordination will eventually span the space segment (satellite systems), ground segment (reception, processing, and distribution centres), the associated science, and information service development.

To achieve this goal, CEOS, with its partners, must respond to a number of challenges:

Providing continuity of data:

The IPCC predicts that, should the current decline in observational networks continue, we may have less information on the Earth system in future decades than in the final decades of the 20th century. Recognising the need for coordination of Earth observation satellite programmes, CEOS will aim to ensure continuity, consistency, and inter-comparability of the priority measurements throughout the coming decades – consistent with the requirements of climate studies for trend monitoring and change detection;

Responding to broad demand for operational measurements in fields other than meteorology:

Key meteorological parameters are provided by satellite and in-situ systems on an operational basis to the relevant user communities; forecasts of local precipitation, wind, temperature, and cloudiness are a feature of daily life. This operational status, whereby information is provided on a routine and long term basis without interruption, is now being demanded by a broader range of user groups, including those involved in ocean monitoring, ozone and UV monitoring, carbon cycle studies, pollution alerting, and food security, amongst others. CEOS recognises the need to work with the relevant users – including through participation in the IGOS Partnership - to establish the requirements, and a strategic planning process for the necessary satellite missions, in-situ observations, as well as supporting modelling and information processing efforts.

The need for strengthened links between satellite and in-situ observation systems:

Satellite observations must continue to strengthen links with in-situ observation systems which provide: measurements unobtainable from space; measurements complementary to those from space; and validation of satellite measurements. CEOS proposes to place particular emphasis on this challenge in the coming years, through its involvement in the IGOS Partnership, to ensure the planning of the required operational observation systems. Work is already underway in the domains of ocean monitoring, atmospheric chemistry, global carbon cycle, global water resources, and coral reefs within the IGOS Themes. These areas are regarded as particular priorities.

Strengthening partnerships between observation planners and international treaties:

As demonstrated by the possibility of our ‘lucky escape’ from stratospheric ozone depletion, international political will is a prerequisite to any successful solution to global environmental issues which span political borders. Whilst international co-operation on environmental issues is still in its infancy, progress on major issues is being achieved. However, public concern over man-made climate change will demand further progress during the 21st century – especially on managing fossil fuel emissions and the global carbon cycle.

Providing the information required by decision-makers who represent our countries in the legal and political processes which develop international policies, and by the agencies which monitor compliance and impact of these policies, must therefore be a priority for future observation programmes, including those of CEOS and its Members. CEOS will therefore seek to strengthen partnerships with the secretariats of international treaties and conventions relating to Earth’s environment and sustainable development – including the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, and the UN Commission for Sustainable Development (CSD).

CEOS will also seek to build dialogue with the IPCC, recognised as the main source of assessment advice to these bodies – to ensure that future satellite missions reflect their priorities for Earth system information.

Simplifying access and maximising use:

Recognising the diversity of existing and potential users of Earth observation satellite data and their various levels of technological development, CEOS will endeavour to develop simplified means of access and utilisation for the information contained within the data products from satellites; this should maximise both the data value across a broad range of sectors and the cost-benefit of the government investment in the observation systems.